Coronavirus Pandemic

[Spinnaker1981 974]

1 minute ago, JuniorChubb said:

Cheers for the link @Spinnaker1981 👍

The 1% death rate of Influenza is lower, but you need to consider natural immunity (nobody has encountered Covid-19 before) and the immunisation programs used for the elderly and those at risk that are in place in the developed world. Take that away and the mortality rate of influenza would be higher. I really couldn’t say how much higher though.

On the fly percentages based on these figures can be misleading though, according to you same source and using the same calculation Italy has 463 deaths & 724 recovered so a mortality rate of 64% (fingers crossed my maths is correct).

If 6% mortality rate is a genuine figure though... Recluse Mode Activated!

  Hide contents

I am only posting in spoilers now to avoid contamination!

 

Well, but that is how a mortality rate is counted: total resolved  (number of deaths - deaths by multiple contamination) x100 /number of total resolved infections (so disregarding the unresolved cases), at least according to WHO calculations.

We don´t know if there isn´t another pathological agent in action in the Italian case scenario. It could be a multiple contamination case, or it could be a new mutation of the virus, it could be so many things...

 

 

[JuniorChubb 3,360]

4 minutes ago, Spinnaker1981 said:

We don´t know if there isn´t another pathological agent in action in the Italian case scenario. It could be a multiple contamination case, or it could be a new mutation of the virus, it could be so many things...

Absolutely, I have read (unsourced) there may be two strains with one being more deadly than the other.

Either way though the stats you linked to have given me one clear place to head for... Macao, 10 cases, 10 recovered!

[Spinnaker1981 974]

1 minute ago, JuniorChubb said:

Absolutely, I have read (unsourced) there may be two strains with one being more deadly than the other.

Either way though the stats you linked to have given me one clear place to head for... Macao, 10 cases, 10 recovered!

What about Cuba? No cases at all!!! 😛

[JuniorChubb 3,360]

3 minutes ago, Spinnaker1981 said:

What about Cuba? No cases at all!!! 😛

Cigars are the way forward!

[Squirrel 5,180]

10 minutes ago, JuniorChubb said:

Absolutely, I have read (unsourced) there may be two strains with one being more deadly than the other.

There’s talks of there being a S (severe) variant and a L (Lethal) variant. Nothing been 100% confirmed yet. The S is the more prevalent version. 
 

I’ll only start worrying when the T version comes out. 

[Spinnaker1981 974]

4 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

There’s talks of there being a S (severe) variant and a L (Lethal) variant. Nothing been 100% confirmed yet. The S is the more prevalent version. 
 

I’ll only start worrying when the T version comes out. 

Umbrella Corp, again??? Those guys really don´t know when to stop do they??? 😄

[JuniorChubb 3,360]

16 minutes ago, Spinnaker1981 said:

Umbrella Corp

They cover everything 😉

[Squirrel 5,180]

2 minutes ago, JuniorChubb said:

They cover everything 😉

We need the facepalm reaction back. 

[JuniorChubb 3,360]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

We need the facepalm reaction back. 

Hit that gif button!

[The_Lady_A 1,280]

19 hours ago, zztop911 said:

I figured that was a method, but not from just breathing the same air as in some very contagious bacteria and viruses.

I'm fairly sure that is how all airborne pathogens work, they are aerosolised into tiny droplets of moisture which can hang around in the air. In terms of exactly how contagious SARS 2 is compared to other airborne pathogens, that's beyond my ability to estimate as it depends on how the virus responds to things such as temperature, humidity, air flow. These infected droplets will eventually end up on surfaces which is why touching your face with unclean hands is dangerous - you're potentially wiping the pathogen around your mouth and nose where it's just one inhalation away from your lungs.

@Spinnaker1981 thanks for pulling me on the common cold comparison, that's fair. As for the mortality rate, I have seen figures all over the place from various sources and all with different ways of accounting for or excluding unconfirmed cases, and I'm no medical statistician. The range is such - I've seen claims from 0.1% to 5%, and up to 20% for the most at risk groups - that I am pretty much just parroting the figure given by the UK chief medical advisor as it sounds reasonable. For the general public like myself and most of us here though it's more important that we know the disease is dangerous enough that we follow infection control measures as they are imposed. 

[zztop911 1,609]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Amateur effort.
 

 

LOL! Looks like a radcon outfit!

[zztop911 1,609]

3 hours ago, Spinnaker1981 said:

Well, that is not exactly true, @The_Lady_A .

As you can see here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The actual mortality rate is in the house of 6%, not 2.3% has the "chinese authorities" have been saying (though this is up for debate, but even the lower estimates from WHO give the virus a mortality rate of 3.4% and that doesn´t take into account the deaths that occur from multiple infections on the same host).

Also,  the common cold usually is another virus entirely: Rhinovirus; Furthermore, the common cold has a very low mortality rate (in the rate of less than 0,1%).

Flu (Influenza Virus) has a mortality rate of less than 1% in 1st world countries (which include china, of course) which, being higher than the common cold, it is still far from that of this strain of the corona virus.

Truth being said, the health systems worldwide are already at a near breakpoint status (we have too many elderly and that takes a toll on those systems) and an outbreak of pandemic proportions will, likely, just make the system crumble.

As for predictions, well, I am with @Potato on this one! We are killing this planet, don´t expect it to die without a fight... 😛

 

What you and many others don't seem take in to consideration is all the unreported cases. A lot of people will not show symptoms or are very mild, therefore they go unreported.  I'm sure there is a pretty large section of the population that is not included in the numbers of infected.

Now, everyone is basing their conclusions on the figures released by China. No one except for China knows how accurate those numbers are. We should gain somewhat better data as it spreads to other places that have no reason to fudge the numbers. Still with the nature of the beast, we still won't know accurate figures for people that get the virus.

I still think that this virus is not dangerous to those that are healthy with no underlying condition that this virus seems to take an advantage of.

[CatManDoza 3,474]

Had another case even closer to home, email from the kids school with guideline etc etc. I give it until the end of the week before they close it. 

But that's not half as important ad f*cking with the europa league!!! 

[zztop911 1,609]

58 minutes ago, The_Lady_A said:

I'm fairly sure that is how all airborne pathogens work, they are aerosolised into tiny droplets of moisture which can hang around in the air. In terms of exactly how contagious SARS 2 is compared to other airborne pathogens, that's beyond my ability to estimate as it depends on how the virus responds to things such as temperature, humidity, air flow. These infected droplets will eventually end up on surfaces which is why touching your face with unclean hands is dangerous - you're potentially wiping the pathogen around your mouth and nose where it's just one inhalation away from your lungs.. 

Well, yes and no. What you said is accurate to a degree.  Coughing and sneezing will only project the virus a certain range before the droplets drop out and fall on a surface.  There are viruses that can transmitted just by breathing and remain in the air currents for MUCH longer periods of time If this virus were like this, there would be far higher infection rates from plane flights and cruise ships as two examples. This is dependent on the virus's method of Viral shedding. Viral shedding is how the virus leaves the infected cell once the virus has gone thru the process of reproduction.

Everything you said about the virus, once fallen on surfaces, is highly accurate and is how we can combat this virus without a vaccine.

[zztop911 1,609]

19 minutes ago, CatManDoza said:

Had another case even closer to home, email from the kids school with guideline etc etc. I give it until the end of the week before they close it. 

But that's not half as important ad f*cking with the europa league!!! 

Some colleges are going "all on line"  and telling students to not to return to school after spring break.

 

There's another big problem................SPRING BREAK!

[Squirrel 5,180]

32 minutes ago, zztop911 said:

Some colleges are going "all on line"  and telling students to not to return to school after spring break.

 

There's another big problem................SPRING BREAK!

Do you think there will be much fluid transfer during spring break?

[Crawford1872 2,587]

1 hour ago, CatManDoza said:

Had another case even closer to home, email from the kids school with guideline etc etc. I give it until the end of the week before they close it. 

But that's not half as important ad f*cking with the europa league!!! 

Just got my email from Rangers saying our Europa game on thursday is likely to go ahead at least. Will wear my mask to the football if need be! 

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Crawford1872

[zztop911 1,609]

30 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Do you think there will be much fluid transfer during spring break?

LMMFAO!

Well, there was when I went to New Smyrna Beach,  Coca Beach and Daytona. ESPECIALLY Daytona! I'll never forget the twins!

[JuniorChubb 3,360]

1 hour ago, CatManDoza said:

Had another case even closer to home, email from the kids school with guideline etc etc. I give it until the end of the week before they close it. 

But that's not half as important ad f*cking with the europa league!!! 

I have been posting these for a week or two now. The school closures will come eventually, the closer to the peak they close the more effective and less disruptive they will be.

I can’t help feeling they are trying to get as close to Easter holidays as possible before doing it though, this will mean two of the weeks are less of a write off.

[CatManDoza 3,474]

2 hours ago, Crawford1872 said:

Just got my email from Rangers saying our Europa game on thursday is likely to go ahead at least. Will wear my mask to the football if need be! 

 

Lucky b*stard

[CatManDoza 3,474]

1 hour ago, JuniorChubb said:

I have been posting these for a week or two now. The school closures will come eventually, the closer to the peak they close the more effective and less disruptive they will be.

I can’t help feeling they are trying to get as close to Easter holidays as possible before doing it though, this will mean two of the weeks are less of a write off.

Good shout that mate

[CatManDoza 3,474]

3 hours ago, zztop911 said:

Some colleges are going "all on line"  and telling students to not to return to school after spring break.

 

There's another big problem................SPRING BREAK!

This is a primary (elementary) school, it will be have your kids, make sure they read and do some handwriting for 2 weeks

[Con 5,719]

And people think we could handle an actual apocalypse. lmao. All the dumb people will kill the smart people first and then real hell will break loose.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Con

[JuniorChubb 3,360]

26 minutes ago, CatManDoza said:

This is a primary (elementary) school, it will be have your kids, make sure they read and do some handwriting for 2 weeks

Or practice their Edits and No Scopes!

[Squirrel 5,180]

3 hours ago, JuniorChubb said:

have been posting these for a week or two now. The school closures will come eventually, the closer to the peak they close the more effective and less disruptive they will be

Easter is usually a semi shut down in the manufacturing sector too. A lot of our customers wind down around then. If the government decides to enforce a 2 week shut down then that is the right time to reduce economic impact. 
 

Unless you work in the travel or leisure industry.