Should we stay or should we go?

[Squirrel 5,180]

Ok before we all go crazy I do know there is an unwritten rule in this crew that we don't talk politics. I completely agree with this and normally I wouldn't bring political debate anywhere near this site. 

However with the looming Brexit vote coming up and the unique international make up of the crew I'd like to know some opinions from my fellow Europeans on their views on Britain potentially leaving the EU. 

Normally when it comes to an election whether it be local or national I stick well clear. I voted once for the novelty factor not long after I turned 18 but since then I've never voted. Not because I don't have an interest in politics but mainly because I don't have any faith in the bureaucratic wankers who run this country no matter which party they belong to. 

This time is different. Too many UK residents are of the X-Factor watching sheep mentality, sadly these lower educated members of our society outnumber those who actually think about the consequences of such a vote so I think I need to make sure my vote counts. The big question is what side to take.

I have strong views on immigration. Britain has always been a nation of immigrants. They have been part of what makes Britain unique ever since the first stone age people walked across the dried up English Channel, cutting ties to Europe won't change the fact that people want to move here even though our weather is usually shite. 

As for finances, to be honest I don't have a clue. Leaving Europe may mean I can afford an extra pint at the end of the week but is that enough to limit the extra benefits European membership offers. 

Then you have the case of easy travel within the EU. Great for those of us who want a quick trip over the channel for some cheap continental drinking. 

Anyway before I turn this into a huge rant what do you guys think.

Should we stay or should we go?

 

 

[LimeGreenLegend 4,275]

Leave! If the country really were going to be fucked if we left then there wouldn't be a vote on it.

Make Britain Great Again, vote Trump.

Politics confuses me.

[Team_Bub_8487 194]

I don't like to talk politics on forums, as I want everyone to *cough* remain *cough* friends...

[Squirrel 5,180]

3 minutes ago, Team_Bub_8487 said:

I don't like to talk politics on forums, as I want everyone to *cough* remain *cough* friends...

Don't worry I can understand that, on this subject I'm definitely undecided so looking for as much feedback as possible. My only contact with Europeans are the people in this crew apart from the international lovelies I find on tinder..

[Squirrel 5,180]

1 minute ago, DavidCore89 said:

Current polls indicate that we're set to leave.

The vote to remain was slightly ahead, but not anymore.

The closing date to register for a vote is tomorrow. I've been doing a lot of research on this and so far I've yet to hear a compelling argument to vote either way. It's certainly a tricky subject.

[Lann 10,846]

Brave and interesting question. Either way the outcome will reflect on Europe / World for our entire lifetime. 

[Squirrel 5,180]

5 minutes ago, Lann said:

Brave and interesting question. Either way the outcome will reflect on Europe / World for our entire lifetime. 

You're very right. It may be a UK vote but it affects more than our little island. What does the rest of Europe have to say about our referendum.

[Arruda 718]

47 minutes ago, DavidCore89 said:

We don't need the European Union - they need us more than we need them... Probably for the money.

 

 Where do you base this assumption? Money flows both ways. UK are positive contributors in terms of net transfers, being one of it's wealthiest members, but these calculations never factor things like trade. The European Union represents 45% of UK exports, UK represents a far less percentage of EU exports. And trade is how most of the money goes either way, not direct transfers.

The EU does need the UK in one scope: the political one. It would be a major precedence, the first country to abandon the Union. 

 

Personally, I'm very disappointed with the European Union as well, though I don't want it to end. I actually think the worst facet of the European Union at this moment is the Eurozone, of which the UK is not a part, so it doesn't really concern your lot.

 

This is such a major change, and it involves matters that are so complex, that the full ramifications of a Brexit cannot be predicted by anyone. It may turn out better for both sides on the long run, it may turn out good for one or bad for another, or it could turn out a disaster for everyone. 

Arguments like "we were great alone we can be great again" don't really hold very well against proper scrutiny. You have to think more specifically. Economics are global these days, international trade is the rule. The UK will have to rebuild all their connections. You'll have to sign a trade deal with the EU, and by the reason I cited in the first paragraph the EU will have the upper-hand in these negotiations. You'll then have to sign trade deals with almost every other country in the world, by whom you nowadays trade by virtue of the deals the EU has with those countries. These things can take a decade to negotiate, like the deal with Canada. I have little doubt there will be major economic turmoil and a recession. How long that will last I don't know.

 

Mind, I'm just looking at the economic side of things. I don't necessarily think you're wrong in wanting to leave. You may very well think the political/social/cultural/whatever gains will, on the long run, surpass the inevitable economic loss in the short (or medium, or long?) run. I too sometimes think it would be better for Portugal to leave the EU, but I have no doubts we'd be in for a very tough decade and the country would get a lot poorer for a long time. I'm just so disillusioned with Europe that at some points I think I would take that risk. Suffer now, gain later. Wouldn't vote for a "leave" now, no way. Still have some hope. Curiously, part of that hope lies in this UK debacle, because if you leave, I do hope the self-centred bureaucrats in Brussels realize that a lot of things need to change for the project to survive. It may awaken some people's minds. 

 

One thing that saddens me is that it seems the debate in the UK has almost fully been about immigration. I understand it's an important issue that can't be ignored, but it seems a bit like a dumbing down of a very complex issue with very complex ramifications. 

Edited June 6, 2016 by Arruda

[Squirrel 5,180]

The Euro is a key factor. With the high profile bailouts in Greece, Spain, Ireland etc you could argue that the project was a failure but you could also argue that Britain not joining the Eurozone has also caused it's fair share of problems leaving Germany to support the rest of the failing economies. 

As for immigration you are very right. There's so much more to this decision than the open nature of our borders.However Britain has had it easy compared to mainland Europe, we have the natural barrier of the channel and only a few entry points so migration has been controlled to a large extent. There are new reports daily of boats sinking in the med carrying migrants but many more successfully make the crossing into Europe and the majority of those migrants don't come to the UK.

[Team_Bub_8487 194]

I understand your concerns about safety DC, but I'm not sure how the issue of safety is linked to membership of the EU, or what exactly the link is between safety and illegal immigrants. If anything, membership grants the UK more safety as it allows us to share intelligence and coordinate actions with other member states.

[Arruda 718]

Illegal immigrants certainly have nothing to do with the EU. If they're a problem with it, they'll still be a problem without it. What relates to the EU is the free movement of people and goods, and these are, by definition, legal.

[Arruda 718]

18 minutes ago, DavidCore89 said:

Export and trade is something that'll never go away, if we leave the EU our goods will still be exported.

You're assuming that I'm making assumptions, of course money flows both ways, but being in the EU has no bearing on the UK as an exporter. Sure, new deals will have to be negotiated, but our goods will still be required, or will they suddenly be useless?

At the end of the day, if I'm offered the choice between extra trade deals and my safety then I know what I'll choose, because money means nothing if the country is ruined like so many countries before it.

The average citizen doesn't see the affect of trade loss etc, we see what's right in front of us. Call it short-sighted, but I'll call it prioritizing.

If the debate in the UK is mostly about immigration than what does that tell you? It's a huge issue. No doubt it'll sadden people, but nothing saddens me more than watching my country go downhill.

David Cameron has been banging on about the same economic issues that we'll face while the polls to remain in the EU keep dropping, so we obviously don't care about it too much.

I didn't care about economic issues either, that is, until my country faced the first major recession since I was born (something you probably never witnessed and I hope you never do) and my family lost about 40% of its disposable income in 5 years. The poor were already poor, the rich have their ways of dodging these things, it's us middle class that pays the bulk of these recessions. I had to lose my car, which was non-essential, and we had to rent rooms to strangers to be able to continue paying the mortgage. Believe me, it should be a concern. At that point I was certainly more concerned on how to recover my income so I could kick the strangers inside my house than I was concerned with the family of migrants up the street (they didn't exist, just a joke to lighten the mood )

 

Being in the EU has a major bearing on the UK as an exporter. How many goods will still be required is dependent on their price, and this price will increase severely outside of a free-market. Free-market was almost the only thing EU was about in it's heydays, and look how much every single country profited from that? We've all grown a whole lot richer in these past 60 or 70 years. It wasn't all due to the EU of course (progress would be expected either way) but certainly a major share of it was due to that. Economists tend to disagree on many things, but the fact that free-markets increase trade (and tariffs decrease it) is one of the few things you'll be hard press to find someone disagreeing.

 

I would also chose my safety above everything else. That's not a question. The question is if the referendum is really about that. I think the decision isn't that simple.

[Arruda 718]

Unfortunately I have no vote on the matter

 

Rightly so, though.

[Team_Bub_8487 194]

You're right DC, I think the people here are firm in their convictions, so this will probably just go back and forth forever! There's plenty of other places to argue the toss about this (like parliament, and none of us want to end up like those guys!)

[Squirrel 5,180]

Thanks for your opinions DC. Good to hear what people think on the subject. I'm going to continue to soak up as much knowledge on the subject as possible before the day of the vote. Better to have an imformed decision rather that just going with the masses. 

[Fido_le_muet 5,198]

Well, my opinion is very selfish but you guys need to stick with us otherwise the EU is fucked and my country is fucked !

[Arruda 718]

It will also threaten our future road trip @Fido_le_muet. Our British contingent better check if their passports are ok!!!

[Fido_le_muet 5,198]

Haha yes that as well !

[Pen0sIRE 201]

I honestly think the UK should leave. there are very few advantages for you in staying and i don't see a country as big and rich as yours will lose out in the long run. even in the short term tbh.

 

the recession here in Ireland will never end because of all these huge bailouts that we cannot afford to repay.(there has been alot of falsehoods and lying about our gains in the last few years which have not trickled down to the lowest in our society.)  the country is still crippled, we have a homeless and housing crisis that are only getting worse. the rental market has sky rocketed and many Irish men and women cannot afford to live in their own country.

 

on the immigration end we are taking in very few people so i can't really comment on that front.

 

 

[silenttigercd 863]

GET THE EUCK out!

I kept an open mind throughout studying a module on European Law earlier this year, and going on a road trip through numerous EU countries to visit many of the EU's institutions. I made my decision and submitted my postal vote to leave last week. I was undecided for a long time due to the complexity and intricacies raised by the decision and the many benefits of EU membership. One thing that really helped me decide was to ask myself: Would I vote to join the EU in it's current state. The answer is no, I'll briefly explain some of my reasons for this.

 

Economics

First off, the economic predictions are bullshit. Economists are renowned for getting things wrong and are unable to predict what will happen. These claims that each household will be £xxx better or worse off should be ignored. Long term, the UK may be better or worse off, no one knows. Of course, leaving the EU will throw a spanner in the works and it will probably take a while to stabilise. In my opinion it's likely all EU Member States will face a worse financial burden if they continue to bail out poorer countries, as they did to Greece last year (and will need to again soon). Furthermore, the EU is not some sort of everlasting entity - it is capable of collapsing in on itself or Member States could follow the UK's lead and get out. I'm happy for the UK to go it alone and not face these additional burdens. 

 

Democratic Deficit

This, and the issue of sovereignty are two fundamental issues with the EU and I haven't seen them discussed thus far. Basically, the only people directly elected to the EU are MEPs to the European Parliament. The issue is that there are other institutions; The European Commission, The Council of the European Union, The European Council, Court of Justice where officials are not elected. This is problematic because the European Council is the most powerful of all and holds the most legislative power, hence the democratic deficit. It's what Mr Farage is always banging on about, unelected people making decisions for us...

 

Parliamentary Sovereignty

It's widely accepted that parliament should be the sovereign power in a democratic state. In many areas the EU is the sovereign power because national courts have fettered their jurisdiction and passed powers, through treaty, to the institutions of the EU. At first glance this seemed like a great idea - environmental issues are best tackled by groups of countries collaborating. The EU seemed the perfect vehicle to accomplish this. The reality is the EU are now telling us what power our vacuum cleaners must be. Oh, they don't like those thin carrier bags either - the 5p carrier bag charge originated as an EU Directive. They hate those thin carrier bags!

 

The cost

It certainly appears the EU try to do everything in the most expensive way possible. Unlike the UN or NATO, the EU doesn't have an official language and prefers to employ interpreters who interpret between every single language spoken in EU countries. Admittedly, their salaries are dwarfed by those of MEPs, judges and other EU officials, and their expenses. Then there's the security, police escorts, and transport costs operating in Brussels. They use Mercedes, BMWs and Audi's for this. Also transporting officials from their homes abroad to Brussels. Their accommodation in Brussels. Oh, and I almost forgot, they have another Parliament in Strasbourg which they are required to regularly attend by Treaty. Numerous MEPs have signed a petition to stop going there because it's a complete waste of money but because it's in Treaty the petition has no power! 

Then there are the buildings, both Parliament buildings are absolutely huge, and they have smaller buildings scattered around them. Inside they have massive works of art worth millions. Tell me the Court of Justice of the European Union isn't made of pure gold:

 

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership [TTIP]

This is even more dodgey that Scouring the Projects! It's a deal between the EU and the USA that is being negotiated in secret! It's basically going to allow US companies to provide services such as education, health and services in EU Member States. It's no wonder Obamba thinks the UK should stay, right? 

A basic overview of TTIP if anyone's interested. 

 

Free movement of people

This is nowhere near as bad as the media make us believe; Member States can reject individuals for a variety of reasons so it's not a free for all. People can't simply jump on the ferry for a comfortable live on UK benefits. We also have the option to work in other Member States with warmer climates and can travel without visas and limited checks. The big concern here is that the majority of Europeans under 30 years old speak English fluently. This crew is a perfect example of people communicating in English as a second language, often to a higher standard than people who speak it as their first. I'll be honest, this threatens me personally. Obviously I want less people in the labour pool when I'm applying for jobs, as I currently am!

 

The migrant crisis

The EU really have fucked this up so much and have blood on their hands. It's a delicate subject and I have extreme views on it but I feel it has to be mentioned due to the magnitude of the problem and the risks attached to it. The EU were in the perfect position to take charge of this situation and force Member States to collaborate in the interests of national security. Free movement of people within Europe is fine but the border surrounding needs to be secured. ISIS threatened this infiltration and promised to send their own members amongst the crowds. The Gulf States are refusing to take any of the migrants, with whom they share a culture, language, climate and god, citing fears of terrorism. For some reason this has been accepted: the people who know and understand the migrants best have said they're a security risk, the EU, on the other hand, have welcomed them with open arms. 

I personally think the EU should have adopted Australia's approach; save people from drowning and provide them with a safe boat to return to their country of origin. This would likely stem the, seemingly endless, flow of migrants and discourage the people smugglers and their dangerous boats. Had this approach been adopted we probably wouldn't have dead children washing up on our shores. 

Throughout my European trip I saw literally hundreds of migrants and the way they behave is absolutely disgusting. The army and police were needed to suppress them in many areas. We've heard of the sexual assaults on New Years Eve, even more throughout recent weeks, and how many more have been covered up Rotheram style? 

Turkey's financial demands and potential to join the EU is also a very worrying prospect. They've demanded €3bn to "deal" with the migrant crisis, on condition they can spend the money on whatever they like and there's no guarantee anything will change. 

We have an opportunity to detach ourselves from the issue, we should grasp it with both hands. 

 

TL:DR / Conclusion

The EU has grown from it's roots as the Coal and Steel Community and developed into this big, expensive monster. There are many benefits to EU membership but are they really worth the financial burden to Member States? I don't think so. Many EU officials are unaccountable to anyone and we don't actually know who they are, There's no transparency and an evident democratic deficit. Everything is done in the most expensive, extravagant way possible and no accounts are ever produced. The TTIP is shady as fuck and should be viewed with extreme caution. Let's go it alone so the dickheads we vote into Parliament actually have the power to do the things they promised! 

 

That should give you some food for thought Squirrel

Edited June 6, 2016 by silenttigercd

[Fido_le_muet 5,198]

The UE needs to become a Federation if it wants to survive.

[MrBump360 482]

I started typing something then thought better of it.

and then i really did not write anything. Better.

Edited June 6, 2016 by MrBump360

[CandyRotten 161]

I voted out. I do postal vote so I've done it already. I'm going to be honest. I don't know much about the benefits of either going or staying. Each side is based to their own agenda so we're never going to get a straight answer.  my reason for voting out was pretty much I was fed up of David Cameron and George Osbornes scare mongering tactics 

[Arruda 718]

Thanks for that @silenttigercd, I think you articulated some of European demons pretty well. It was a very nice read. (I had written some more stuff but reckon it's better not. Better just that everyone gives their opinion and not turn this into too big a debate - I've given mine, so will abstain from stirring the waters more). 

Edited June 6, 2016 by Arruda

[silenttigercd 863]

Thanks @Arruda

There are compelling arguments from both sides, it's a shame none of them have filtered down to the UK campaigns!